Energy Efficiency, Regulation, Sourcing Renewables  -  May 31, 2018

125 million electric vehicles expected by 2030

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road worldwide is forecasted to reach 125 million by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), which put the total car count at about 2 billion by 2040. Estimates for 2017 showed the EV count at 3.1 million, an increase of 54%.

A report by CNBC noted that growth would be driven by government policies that encourage drivers, fleets, and municipalities to purchase clean-running cars.

"The uptake of electric vehicles is still largely driven by the policy environment," the IEA said in the report. "The 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption all have a range of policies in place to promote the uptake of electric cars." China and Europe are expected to be the biggest adopters, thanks to policies currently in place. In China, for example, credits and subsidies will help EVs grow to account for more than a quarter of the car market by 2030, while tightening emissions standards and high fuel taxes in Europe will boost the vehicles to 23 percent of the market. In 2017, Germany and Japan posted the biggest EV growth rates as sales more than doubled vs. 2016.

As for the U.S., the IEA forecasts "rapid market penetration" in places like California and other states with zero emissions plans, relatively low taxes on fuels and the Trump administration's intentions to scale back vehicle emissions standards could hold back growth.

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